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Obama Wins as A Proxy for John F. Kennedy

Posted December 2, 2008

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PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES N THE NOVEMBER ELECTION RAN AS PROXIES FOR PREFERRED PAST PRESIDENTS

In deciding how to vote in the November Presidential Election, the public not only compared Obama to McCain but also compared each to past Presidents whose leadership qualities and policies they knew.

Almost all Americans (84%) keep in mind a past President with proven leadership whom – if miracles could happen – they want back to lead the nation. In September 2008 and November 2008 preferred past presidents were, in descending order of frequency of spontaneous mention:

Click here to see table

During the early months of the campaign, the public had a chance to evaluate Obama and McCain, plus twenty or so other contenders for nomination, as each campaigned to win the Democratic or Republican candidacy or get on the ballot as an Independent.

When finally nominated, McCain was seen as a proxy for Ronald Reagan, in that 73% of those who preferred Reagan planned to vote for McCain. Obama was seen as a proxy for Clinton, with 72% of those who preferred Clinton planning to vote for Obama. In addition, 56% of those who preferred John F. Kennedy planned to vote for Obama.

Preferences for past Presidents remained relatively stable during the months leading up to the November election, but a major change took place in public’s view of the candidate they saw as a proxy for their preferred past President.

As McCain campaigned and became better known to the public, fewer and fewer Americans saw McCain as having the leadership qualities of Reagan. Specifically, among those who preferred Reagan, the percent planning to vote for McCain slipped from 73% in September to 58% in October to 49% in November.

Simultaneously, the percent seeing Obama as a proxy for Clinton declined from 72% in September to 65% in October to 55% in November.

While the public changed their view of which candidate was a proxy for their preferred past President, there was no change between October and November in who the public wanted as President despite the heat of the last-minute campaigning.

In early October, when a national sample of Americans was asked how they would vote if the election were held that day, Obama led McCain by eight points – 43% to 35%, with 22% not committed.

A month later, in the actual election – after intense sometime hostile last minute campaigning – Obama won over McCain by seven points, with 53% of the votes going to Obama, 46% for McCain, and one percent for other candidates.

PARTY PREFERENCES

Most Americans see them self and want to be seen by others as “independent voters” who decide how to vote on the basis of their appraisal of the candidate – not the candidate’s party affiliation.

During each of fifteen successive months, including November 2008, an average of 80% of the 7,200 Americans interviewed at the rate of 480 per month said “yes” when asked if they were an independent voter.

While Americans want to see themselves and want to be seen by others as “independents,” once an American declares they are “independent,” they readily announce their party leaning.

In the average month during the fifteen-month period including November 2008, 47% of all Americans declared that they leaned toward the Democratic Party, and 30% declared they leaned Republican, resulting in a 17-point gap between those leaning Democratic and those leaning Republican.

Only 2% persisted in saying they were “Independent.” The bulk of the balance said that they “did not know” which way they leaned or said they leaned both ways or leaned liberal or leaned conservative.

November 2008 was close to being an average month, in that there was an 18-point gap between the 48% of the population who declared they leaned Democratic and the 30% who declared they leaned Republican.

In the actual November election, despite the eighteen point gap between those who said they leaned Democratic and those who leaned Republican, there was only a seven-point gap between the 53% who voted for Obama and the 47% who voted for McCain.

Similarly, in the October opinion poll there was an eight-point gap between the 43% who said they would vote for Obama and the 35% who said they would vote for McCain, with the 22% balance of the public not counted as voters.

DISAFFECTED AMERICANS

The election process has the effect of acerbating the division of the nation into hostile camps. Obama’s relatively scant 53% majority of voters left disaffected the large segment of the public. In November, the public rated their feelings about Obama as President at 6.33 on a nine-point scale where 9 stands for “extremely good” and 1 for “extremely bad.”

The average 6.33 rating given to Obama approaches but does not rise to the rating of 7 that consumers give to products that have minimally acceptable commercial potential.

At the extremes, a third (35%) of Americans feel “extremely good” and 11% feel “extremely bad” about having Obama as their new President.

The rating that the public gives Congress averages 5.50, almost a full point below Obama’s rating of 6.33 and well below the rating of 7 that consumers give to products that are minimally acceptable.

Clearly, a major portion of the population of the United States of America is now, as has often been the case since the nation’s inception, disaffected with their leaders.

The major achievement of the nation’s founders was that they established a consensus that:

The thirteen Colonies with their disparate interests and populations would unite and form a single nation, The United States of America, and that
2) The United States of America would treat its people as born equal with the rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, even though major portions of its population were oppressed as slaves and indentured servants, and women and Native Americans were denied the right to vote.

The strength of the consensus that America be united was tested a century later in the Civil War, fought to resolve by force a dispute that could not be negotiated. Almost as many Americans died in the Civil War (212,000) as in World War II, in which more Americans (291,000) died, than in the over fifty wars fought by Americans since the nation was founded.

To return to the present election, having won the election, Obama, like Abraham Lincoln and other past Presidents, recognizes that he is far from being the public’s unanimous choice as their President and the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces.

In our post-election poll, where just almost half (45%) of the public – including voters and non-voters - did not name Obama as the candidate “they hoped would be elected”. Only a scant majority (55%) of all Americans named Obama as the candidate they “hoped would win the election.”

The 45% who did not hope for an Obama victory included 39% who hoped McCain “would win the election” and 6% who did not care whether Obama or McCain became President.

Immediately upon being elected, Obama tried to assure every American and every minority group that he would be the President of all Americans. He pledged that he would not impose on all Americans a tyranny of the majority of voters.

LOOKING AHEAD

The American public is inclined to give Obama a chance to win their loyalty. Seven in ten (70%) say that “in four years,” at the end of Obama’s term in office, America is likely to be a better place. Only 20% say America will be a worse place, with the remaining 10% do not making a choice.

The 70% of Americans who feel Obama will leave America a better place are counting on him mainly – in descending order of frequency of mention – to: improve the economy (40%); end the war and leave Iraq (17%); improve the world view of America (17%); achieve unity for the nation (16%); and create jobs and stop outsourcing (10%).

The 20% of Americans who think Obama will make the nation a worse place to live in the coming four years mainly say, in descending order of frequency, that: the economy will get worse (32%); taxes will go up (18%); and socialism will be encouraged (13%), as will abortion and gay rights, and that there will be decreases in national security and personal freedom, and second amendment rights.

While Americans want Obama to fulfill his long list of promises, the key to Obama’s chances for uniting the nation in support of him as their President is delivering on the promise of improving the economy.

For a report on the magnitude of the challenge facing Obama, go to the article posted on 8Sages.com titled “Hard Times Persist in November – Consumers See a Glimmer of Hope.”