The long struggle between the Democratic and the Republican parties continues in the 2008 election. That struggle is a continuation of the 1776 debate by the nation’s founders about governing the United States of America.
The nation’s founders had just won their freedom in a bloody revolution against the tyranny of England. Now, they were resolved to form a nation whose citizens should never be forced to engage in physical warfare to free themselves from a tyrant.
When the nation was founded, major portions of the population were oppressed as slaves and indentured servants who were subject to tyranny – subject to the will of their owner. Many of those who were not enslaved or indentured, including Native Americans and women, did not have the right to vote or hold property.
The nation’s founders, all men of privilege, recognized that the seeds for violent revolution existed in the oppressed, non-privileged portion of the population. To forestall bloodshed, and for idealistic reasons, they envisioned a nation in which all men would be born equal and endowed with the inalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
Recognizing that a person elected to office may not willingly give up power, the founders provided that the President and legislators be swept from office periodically. The people would then, in a bloodless revolution, elect those whom they wanted to lead the nation.
Even though the disparities between the privileged and non-privileged have narrowed sharply during the 235 years since the signing of the Constitution, the struggle to reduce disparities between the two groups continues in the 2008 Presidential election.
In selecting a new President, people favor the candidate whom they feel has the leadership qualities of the past President they would want to lead the nation today, if miracles could happen. The leadership qualities of the preferred past President set a standard against which they judge current candidates for the office of President.
In all, over eight in ten (83%) Americans surveyed in September spontaneously recalled the name of a Republican or a Democratic past President whom they would want to come back to lead the nation.
John F. Kennedy was named spontaneously by 17% of Americans as the past President they would want to lead the nation, followed closely in second place by Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton (15% each), then by FDR and Abe Lincoln (7% each), Harry Truman (4%), and seven other past Presidents.
When asked to name the current candidate for President who comes closest to having the leadership qualities of their preferred past President, 73% of those who named Reagan spontaneously say John McCain. Of those who named Bill Clinton as their preferred past President, 72% spontaneously say Obama.
Supporters of Obama, like supporters of Bill Clinton, are concentrated in the lower economic segments of the population, including the segment with the Lowest Income, and are pessimistic about the nation’s future.
In contrast, supporters of McCain, like supporters of Reagan, are, like the nation’s founders, concentrated in the upper economic segments and are optimistic about the nation’s future.
In the 2008 election, McCain is a proxy for Reagan and Obama a proxy for Bill Clinton.
These differences between McCain/Reagan and Obama/Clinton supporters parallel, but are somewhat more extreme, than the differences between Democrats and Republicans. Over the past year, in our survey of 6,286 men and women sampled nationally and interviewed at the rate of 480 a month, only 7% of Democrats said “things are getting better for the nation” compared to 24% of Republicans.
Since the inception of the nation, privileged and non-priveleged Americans alike – for selfish as well as unselfish motives – have, like the nation’s founders, fought to reduce the disparity between the privileged and non-privileged members of society.
Turning to the 2008 election, our tracking surveys find that the Republican Party gained strength between August (before the conventions) and September (after the conventions). Specifically, the percent of Americans who lean Republican increased four points, from 29% in August to 33% in September. In contrast, the percent of Americans who say they lean Democratic remained virtually unchanged, at 46% in August and 47% in September.
With both Vice-Presidential candidates known, the September survey finds the public divided almost evenly between those who would vote for Obama (39%) and those who would vote for McCain (36%), with 25% undecided.
The almost even split between McCain and Obama mirrors the equal preference for Reagan (15%) and Clinton (15%) as the past president they would want to lead the nation.
It is too early to predict the outcome of the election.
The current balance of votes between the two candidates is inherently unstable. More Americans vote for McCain (36%) than say they lean Republican (33%). Conversely, Obama gets many fewer votes (39%) than the 47% of Americans who say they lean Democratic. Adding to the instability is the 25% of Americans who have not decided how they will vote.
The public is so deeply divided that candidates fear they may be talking “past one another” and that the other side is simply “not getting it.”
As candidates campaign, they not only talk about how much better their plan is than their opponent’s plan for solving the nation’s problems but also try to show they are better able than their opponent to lead America as it acts to handle threats at home and abroad.
Despite the vigor of the campaign, through early September the public remains divided between those who vote for McCain as they long for Reagan and those who vote for Obama as they long for Clinton.
There is a good chance that the outcome of the 2008 election will not be settled until days before the election. Further, there is a real chance that the candidate who feels they may lose will, as Election Day approaches, risk an “October Surprise,” an attack their opponent will not have time to counter.
It was such an October Surprise that brought Truman, as well as George W. Bush, into office. Pollsters were so sure that Truman would lose to Dewey that they stopped polling early, and the Chicago Tribune headline, based on stale polling data, read “Dewey Wins” even after Truman won.
In the 2004 Presidential election, an October Surprise swept Bush into office. Our survey in early October 2004 showed Kerry winning. Then, Bush mounted a major assault on Kerry. In November our survey, as well as the actual election, showed Bush as the winner. A January repeat of the survey found that the effect of Bush’s attack had moderated, and that had the election been rerun in January, Kerry would have won.
A companies failure to fulfill their obligation too slow climate change can be consequential, The rapid rise in the cost of oil and the continuation of a wicked combination of inflation and faltering incomes triggers intense consumer effort to cut back spending on gasoline and on fuel used to heat homes,
Because elections can be decided in the final weeks or even days of the campaign, both parties routinely prepare for launching or defending against an October Surprise. The possibility of an October surprise remains real.
Whoever wins the 2008 election, it is clear that the United States has moved mightily toward achieving its founders’ ideals.
The Democratic candidate for President is Black – a man who could most likely have been a slave in 1776. The Republican candidate for Vice President is a woman – a person who would not have had the right to vote in 1776.
As the founders intended, the election struggle will be bloodless The loser will concede defeat and the winner, without fear of armed opposition, will take office.
Time has shown that the nation’s founders’ decision to assure everyone the right to pursue happiness in the face of adversity does reduce the disparity between the privileged and non-privileged sectors of our society.
The next report on the status of the 2008 Presidential election will be issued on October 20, 2008.
October Update
Between September and October, Obama gains seven points on McCain, moving from 39% to 43%. Since McCain’s vote remains virtually unchanged at 35% (36% last month), Obama’s gains came from a net movement of Americans who were “not committed” to either candidate to those who now support Obama.
In the 2008 Presidential campaign, current candidates are seen by the public as proxies for the past President whom they would want to lead the nation today if miracles could happen.
McCain is the proxy for Reagan, in that 74% of Americans favoring Reagan said they would vote for McCain. Obama is the proxy for Clinton and John F. Kennedy, with 75% of those who favored Clinton supporting Obama and 65% of those favoring JFK saying they would vote for Obama.
Credit for Obama’s gain in support between September and October, logically, goes to his intense campaigning effort.
Credit for McCain’s ability to retain his support in the face of Obama’s assault reflects a month-to-month gain by Reagan – for whom McCain is a proxy – of three points, from 15% to 18%. With this gain, Reagan displaces John F. Kennedy for most preferred past President.
Bill Clinton, who campaigned for Obama, continued in second place month to month as the preferred past President, capturing 15% of the vote in September and October.
Kennedy, for whom Obama is a proxy, lost four points month to month, moving from 17% to 13% as the preferred past President.
The October survey does not predict the outcome of the election. A great deal will happen between the time interviewing was completed in October and Election Day.
Both candidates are increasing the intensity of their campaign.
The outcome of the election remains uncertain. McCain, who is seen lagging in the polls is impelled to change his campaign – to try new things.
Obama, who is seen as on the way to gain enough support to win, may be tempted to increase the intensity of his campaign but leave its content essentially unchanged, since the campaign seems to be working out well for him.
There is still time for an “October Surprise;” both candidates have a chance to win.
Copyright September 2008 by Leo J. Shapiro – All Rights Reserved.