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McCain Will Win if Obama Fails to Get Support from Democratic Voters

Posted Sep 14, 2008

The race is tight because Democrats are not fully committed to Obama - August status of the 2008 Presidential Election.

Obama’s four point margin of victory over McCain in August (32% Obama versus 28% McCain) is sharply lower than the 11 point margin that existed a month earlier in July (33% Obama versus 22% McCain). Between July and August, the vote for Obama remains fairly constant at 33% as does a nostalgic 5% vote for Clinton, but the vote for McCain jumps six points from 22% in July to 28% in August.

Obama’s August four point margin for victory is ridiculously small given the 17 point difference between the 46% of Americans who lean Democratic and the 29% leaning Republican. Unopposed by a Democratic party fully committed to Obama, McCain can quickstep to victory.

Obama’s current failure to win the full support of Democrats has its roots in the strategy he used to win the nomination. Rather than relying on attracting votes only from established Democratic voters, Obama, brought enough new voters to the Democratic primary to overwhelm traditional Democratic voter support for Clinton.

Apart from the damage done to party unity by the manner in which Obama won the primary, Democrats have been dealt a winning hand by the troubled economy. Democrats are a strong majority strongly united by the economic distress they suffer to do what it takes to effect a change in the administration. (See article titled "Inflation eases, recession deepens”)

Looking ahead, what happens to Democratic support for Obama in days immediately following the Convention will have a crucial but not a defining effect on the final outcome of the November election. A follow-up  sage with September data on the status of the campaign will be posted after the conventions have been held. .

8SAGES.COM can't predict the election outcome. No poll taken early in a campaign is predictive. Remember Truman’s victory over Dewey? Early in that campaign, Dewey’s victory seemed so certain that pollsters stopped their polling.

Later, with Truman in office, pollsters were accused of seeking to influence the election by triggering a landslide effect that would sweep Dewey into office. Congress called a hearing at which pollsters were forced to testify under oath that they were simply wrong not malevolent in prematurely announcing a Dewey victory.

Early predictions are also inherently subject to error because there is an ever-present chance for an October surprise. Case in point: in September and October 2004, Kerry was clearly in the lead to win the election. After the Swift Boat attack on Kerry’s probity, Bush moved into the lead in our November poll and won the actual election.

Bush won the election even though he did not enjoy majority support for his policies. After Bush announced his intention to spend the political capital gained by winning the election to make America a “faith based ownership society”, our January follow-up poll found that Bush would lose and Kerry would win if the election were rerun.

Information about the status of the 2008 Presidential campaign is obtained from telephone interviews conducted during the first ten days of each month with 480 consumers sampled freshly from the nation. It describes the situation that exists during the ten days at the start of each month during which interviews are conducted.

LOOKING AHEAD: While it is tempting to assume that nothing will happen between May and November that will affect the outcome of the 2008 election, history says that the improbable can happen – there can be an “October surprise.”

To be notified about updates on public preferences for President as well as shifts in the nature of the problems the next President will commit him or herself to solve, keep in touch with 8SAGES.COM. 

ALSO SEE PREVIOUS BACKGROUND ARTICLES  

Regime Change in 2008 May 25, 2008

The Next President: Policies and Issues April 21, 2008

The Next President- Policies and Identity March 27, 2008