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Regime Change in 2008

Posted May 25, 2008

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Overwhelmingly, Americans want a Democrat elected as their President. In May, the 2008 Presidential election looks like it will be a replay of the 1932 election.

In 1932, with a quarter of the work force unemployed and farms and businesses mired in deep depression Americans turned against the Republican Party. Comics asked Hoover to vote for Roosevelt to unite the country and make its choice of a Democrat as president unanimous.

PARTY PREFERENCE: In May, 53% of Americans leaned Democratic, 27% leaned Republican and 20% did not lean toward either party.

POLITICAL ISSUES: Spontaneous mention of “the economy” as the major problem facing the nation – either recession or inflation or both” increased month by month from 40% in November to 62% in May.

With attention focused on the economy, spontaneous mentions of issues like Immigration, social issues diminished.

The deteriorating “economy” is having a devastating effect on consumers. In May, a third (35%) of consumers report their personal finances – their savings plus income versus debt plus spending – are out of balance and getting worse. They feel they cannot afford to sustain their current level of spending.

At the other extreme, a third of consumers report their finances are in balance and likely to improve. The remaining third (32%) report their finances are close to being out of balance.

CANDIDATES: When ask to name the past president they would want to lead the country today, 16% of Americans in May name JFK, up from 12% in April; 15% named Reagan, down from 17% in April and 14% named Bill Clinton, up from 9% in April.

Then when asked to name which of the possible candidates for the Presidency comes closest to matching the leadership qualities of their favorite past president, 27% name Obama, up from 26% in April; 23% name Hillary, up from 21% in April and 20% name McCain.

Obama is associated in the minds of Americans with JFK, FDR and Lincoln. Hillary is associated with Bill Clinton, JFK and FDR. McCain is associated with Reagan.

Cross party voting is not likely to cause the Democrats to lose the election. Among those who lean Democratic, only 4% name McCain has having the leadership qualities they value in their favorite past president. Among those who lean Republican, 8% name Obama as have the leadership qualities they value in their favorite past president and 4% name Hillary Clinton.

LOOKING AHEAD: While it is tempting to assume that nothing will happen between May and November that will affect the outcome of the 2008 election, history says that the improbable can happen – there can be an “October surprise.”

Pollsters, who stopped polling when it looked like a Dewey win over Truman was inevitable, lived to be called up in front of a Congressional committee to face questions about why they tried to help Dewey win by starting a bandwagon effect.

To be notified about updates on public preferences for President as well as shifts in the nature of the problems the next President will commit him or herself to solve, keep in touch with 8SAGES.COM.

ALSO SEE PREVIOUS BACKGROUND ARTICLES

The Next President: Policies and Issues April 21, 2008

The Next President- Policies and Identity March 27, 2008