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- Prepare for some surprises, because the 2008 election’s outcome can be influenced by last minute events, as was the 2004 election.
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Spontaneous mention of the economy as a major problem facing the nation has risen month-by month since the recession's onset from 40% in November,2007 to 65% in April 2008.
With the economy dominating public attention, candidates have turned to announcing their economic policies, especially with regard to the distribution of incomes. Obama and Clinton favor improving the incomes of middle and lower income families. McCain favors a modified version of the administrations current policies, which include protecting the incomes of everyone including the wealthy.
During the early primaries, candidates pretty well announced
their policies for handling health care, immigration,
The public expresses their idea of the leadership they seek when asked to name the past president they would want – if it were possible - to come back and lead the nation. In April, Reagan received more votes (17%) than Bill Clinton (9%) or JFK (12%). FDR (11%) or Abe Lincoln (8%), are the five favorite past presidents.
Obama is name more frequently in April as having the leadership qualities of a desired past president (26%) than Clinton (21%) or McCain (20%).
Between March and April the percent naming Obama as having
the leadership qualities of a desired past president increases slightly (22% to
26%). In contrast,
McCain is named more often than either of the other two candidates as having Reagan’s leadership qualities, Hillary Clinton is named most often as having Bill Clinton’s leadership qualities. Obama is name most frequently as having the leadership qualities of JFK, FDR and Abraham Lincoln,
The relative popularity of the various past presidents and the three candidates has changed substantially since February.
Spontaneous mention of both Regan and McCain grew faster between February and April that was the case for any other pair of presidents and presidential hopefuls. Reagan moves up from 13% in February to 17% in April and McCain moves up from 11% in February to 20% April.
Mentions for Bill Clinton as favorite past president have drop between February and April (14% to 9%). The percent naming Hillary as having the leadership qualities of a favorite past president have slipped to 21% in April after spiking to 25% in March.
While spontaneous mentions of past presidents identified with Obama as favorites have remained relatively stable, the percent naming Obama as having the leadership qualities of a favored past president jumped from 21% to 26% between February and April.
Obama and Clinton appear to be battling on their own for being seen as having the leadership the nation needs. If the winner attracts the votes of the loser, McCain will have a hard time becoming the next president. However, McCain is gaining popularity. Obama and Clinton can damage each other chances for winning the election as the struggle for the nomination continues.
ALSO SEE PREVIOUS BACKGROUND ARTICLE
The Next President- Policies and Identity March 27, 2008