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- Prepare for some surprises, because the 2008 election’s outcome can be influenced by last minute events, as was the 2004 election.
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The marvelous but messy process by which we transfer control of government progresses apace. In March, according to a poll by Leo J. Shapiro & Associates, three in four Americans (75%) leans toward favoring one of two hostile camps—Democrats (48%) and Republicans (27%)—each with radically different views of how the nation should be managed.
When asked about the major problems facing the country, more Democrats mention economic issues (68%) than Republicans (46%). With reference to specific economic issues, Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to see “inflation” (27% to 18%), “recession” (43% to 30%), and “unemployment” (22% to 15%) as major problems.
Democrats are more also more likely than Republicans to name foreign affairs as a problem (45% to 48%). In terms of specific problems, Democrats are more likely to say “military/war” (41% to 27%) and “Iraq” (11% to 4%) as specific problems.
On the other hand, more Republicans than Democrats name as major problems: “moral issues (27% to 7%), “immigration” (15% to 3%), and “crime” (11% to 6%).
Eight in ten people polled for this study have in mind the standard by which they would judge candidates for President. When asked to make believe and think of which one President since the nation was founded they would want to lead the nation today, they spontaneously name Ronald Reagan (18%), John F. Kennedy (17%), Bill Clinton (15%), Abraham Lincoln (8%), and Franklin Delano Roosevelt (7%). No other past President is named spontaneously by more than 3%.
When asked to name the one of the possible candidates for election in 2008 who comes closest to matching their preferred past President’s ability to“lead the nation,” respondents spontaneously name Hillary Clinton (27%); Barack Obama (22%), and John McCain (15%). No other candidate is mentioned by more than 5% of the public.
Since December, during the primary campaigns, preference for Clinton has grown five points (from 22% to 27%). Obama’s preference has grown 13 points (9% to 22%), and McCain’s has grown 12 points (3% to 15%).
On the face of these data, if the election were held today, Clinton would be the likely winner.
But the race is far from over. Clinton’s rivals are gaining ground more rapidly than Clinton. Also, prepare for some surprises, because the 2008 election’s outcome can be influenced by last minute events, as was the 2004 election.
In October 2004, our survey found John Kerry a clear winner. A successful attack by Republicans on Kerry’s ability to lead the nation turned the public against Kerry and resulted in a new verb, to “swift boat.” Our November 2004 survey found Kerry would lose and George Bush would win, as turned out to be the case in the actual election.
That story does not end in November. Almost immediately after Bush was elected, the public turned against him when he promised to carry out the policies he announced while campaigning for office and govern as a compassionate conservative over a faith-based ownership society. Our January 2005 survey found that Kerry would have been a clear winner if the election were to be run again.
To be notified about updates on public preferences for President as well as shifts in the nature of the problems the next President will commit him or herself to solve, keep in touch with 8SAGES.COM.