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Tomorrow’s News Today Interviews July 1 to 10

The economy: The economy is on a roller coaster—directionless but thrilling. Riding high in April, the economy swoops down in May and again in June before ticking up in July. This is the third time economic activity rose and then fell since the recession began.

Consumer spending: Active shopping for housing moves down from 9% in April, to 5% in May, 6% in June, and 4% in July. The percent actively shopping for new cars falls from 8% in May to 4% in June, and 5% in July.

The President: The percent pleased with Obama’s performance in office decreases progressively from 48% in May to 44% in June, and to 43% in July.

Tomorrow’s News Today Interviews June 1 to 10

The economy: Economic growth falters in June. There is a four-point decline in the Consumer Balance Index, largely reflecting a decrease in the percent of consumers with the “Strongest” financial balances: that is the ratio of assets and income to debt and spending. The percent of consumers who say the economy is getting worse increases four points from 42% in May to 46% in June.

Also, the percent of consumers who fear they or another member of their household will lose their job or have their working hours reduced jumps five points from 49% in May to 54% in June.

Inflation: Fear that inflation will accelerate diminishes. The percent of consumers who believe prices will rise at a steeper rate drops from 34% in May to 23% in June. The percent who believe interest rates will be higher six months from now drops from 61% in May to 48% in June.

Consumer spending: The index tracking active shopping for new cars, housing and other big ticket items drops from 110 in May to 96 in June. This 14-point decline reflects a four-point decline in the percent of consumers actively shopping for new cars, a five-point decline in active shopping for used cars, and a four-point decline in the percent of consumers actively shopping for a personal computer.

Tomorrow’s News Today Interviews May 1 to 10

The economy: Economic growth falters in May. There is a two-point decline in the Consumer Balance Index, largely reflecting a decrease in the percent of consumers with the “Strongest” financial balances: that is, the ratio of assets and income to debt and spending. Also, the percent of consumers who say the economy is getting worse increases two points from 40% in April to 42% in May.

Inflation: The percent of consumers who believe price increases will accelerate jumps from 26% in April to 34% in May – the highest level in well over a year. The percent who believe interest rates will be higher six months from now jumps from 53% in April to 61% in May – again, the highest level observed in well over a year.

Consumer spending: The index tracking active shopping for big ticket items is essentially flat, ticking up a point from 109 in April to 110 in May. A four-point decline in the percent of consumers actively shopping for housing and a three-point decline in those actively shopping for air travel is offset by increases in the percent of consumers actively shopping for new cars, appliances, televisions, household furnishings, and other major goods.

Tomorrow’s News Today Interviews April 1 to 10

The economy: Economy continues to recover but is not fully recovered. It remains fragile. While the percent of consumers with the “Strongest” financial balances increases, there is no evidence that prosperity has trickled down to the 28% of consumers with the Weakest financial balances.

Consumer spending: Active shopping for big ticket items, particularly housing and computers, is up month to month. Propensity to spend freely for food, clothing, and other consumables is stable.

Equity prices and trading: Stock prices continue to be unstable. They fluctuate widely in response to the news of the day. However, investors are increasingly willing to buy stock in the event the Dow declines by 10%.

Politics: Americans who lean Democratic outnumber those who lean Republican by a margin of 16 points – 47% Democratic to 31% Republican. In January the two parties had been close to neck-and-neck, with 39% leaning Democratic and 37% leaning Republican.

Tomorrow’s News Today Interviews March 1 to 10

The economy: News about the economy will, on balance, be slightly optimistic.

Consumer spending: News about retail sales will be more negative than has been the case over the past six weeks.

Equity prices and trading: Absent any major newsbreak, equity trading will remain light and continue to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in response to spot news of the day.

Politics: In March, preference for the Democratic Party jumps to 46% and preference for the Republican Party dropped to 31%, giving the Democratic Party a clear lead. In January, the two parties had been neck and neck in terms of public preference (39% leaning Democratic and 37% leaning Republican).