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Recession Tightens in June after Easing for Three Consecutive Months  Posted: June 20, 2009

President Obama and Chairman Bernanke were well advised to salt their optimism about the economy with warnings of bumps to come. In June, the economy hit a bump. Consumers – including the roughly half invested in the stock market – have lost sight of which way is up. They flap between optimism and pessimism in response to the news of the hour.

RECESSION TIGHTENS: More consumers in May than in June feel their buying power has been constrained. The Consumer Balance Index (CBI) drops three points from 85 in May to 82 in June, after having surged seven points between April and May.

Recession Eases as Rich Get Richer Posted: May 20, 2009

RECESSION EASES: Consumers feel their buying power is enhanced. The Consumer Balance Index (CBI), which tracks consumer perception of the balance between their assets and income versus their debt and pace of spending, surges seven points between April and May to 85.

At 85, the CBI has regained 12 of its 22-point loss, from its pre-recession reading of 95 in October 2007 to its October 2008 low of 73.

Economy Improves and Is Increasingly Resilient Posted: April 29, 2009

Between March and April, the Consumer Balance Index (CBI) ticks up from 77 in March to 78 in April 2009, to stand five points above the October 2009 low of 73 but 17 points below the pre-recession reading of 95 in October 2007.

8Sages’ mid-March report headlined “Economy Grows in First Quarter” anticipated Obama’s and Bernanke’s mid-April announcements that – to paraphrase – they see glimmerings of hope for the economy but the road to recovery could be long and bumpy.

Economy Grows in First Quarter of 2009—But End of Recession Is Not in View: March 2009 Posted: March 27, 2009

Changes in the Consumer Balance Index (CBI) indicate GDP grew between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, recovering a portion of its 62% decline between the third and fourth quarters of 2008.

Specifically, the CBI gained four points, from 74 in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 78 in the first quarter of 2009, after having declined seven points, from 81 to 74 between the second and third quarters of 2008.

“When Will the Recession End?” asks the New York Times Company’s CEO as do many sensible managers of enterprises Posted: February 19,2009

Janet L. Robinson, president and CEO of the New York Times Company is reported in the February 9, 2009 issue of the New York Times saying that her company’s future rests on three questions no one can answer:

When will the recession end? When it does, will the decline of print advertising slow to a modest pace? Will internet ads make a comeback?

Recession Eases in January Economy Remains Fragile  Posted: January 27,2009

Two indicators show the recession eased in January. But, there are indications that the economy remains fragile.

Indicating the recession eased, the Consumers Balance Index (CBI) rose five points between December and January. The five-point gain in the CBI between December and January 2009 is coincident with the roughly 25% gain in stock prices between their November low and the highs reached in the first days of January, which increased the value of consumer assets.